May and June: Crucial Months for Oil Market Dynamics

Analysts from Standard Chartered Bank emphasize the significance of May and June in shaping oil market fundamentals for the first half of 2024. These months are forecasted to witness a substantial tightening compared to previous years, with global stock draws expected to reach 189 million barrels.

Key to this trend is the anticipated surge in demand, set to hit record highs during these months. The analysts stress the need for close monitoring to assess market tightening accurately. Additionally, insights into OPEC+ decisions depend heavily on understanding the fundamentals of May and June. Meanwhile, analysts at Morningstar DBRS note stronger-than-expected oil demand in 2024, cautioning against potential disruptions from geopolitical conflicts.

They project eventual moderation in oil prices but highlight ongoing risks.